Could eVTOL aircraft be the future of personal transport?

One trend that has become increasingly apparent in the past two or three years has been car manufacturers’ growing interest and investment in the burgeoning air mobility sector.

The prospect of diminutive eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) aircraft – or, as they are often referred to, air taxis – ferrying a handful of passengers or deliveries from one city to another may still seem rather distant at present. 

But hundreds of millions of pounds are being poured into eVTOL development, with a number of major automotive players now heavily involved in high-profile partnerships with aviation companies.

Given the industry is still very much at a nascent stage, with no guarantees as to how swiftly it may evolve, what is the motivation for car makers? 

Obvious synergies

Just as the car industry is targeting a greener future, so is aviation, with 2050 the year earmarked for the global industry to fly carbon net zero.

This presents a chance for car manufacturers to leverage the learnings and technology they have acquired in the development of alternatives to the combustion engine – particularly in the area of electrification – in a new arena. There are potential synergies in battery development, for example, that could mean car companies will be able to assist air taxi manufacturers in reducing costs.

As Hyundai Motor Group executive vice president Jaiwon Shin recently explained: “Hyundai has successfully delivered hydrogen fuel cell systems to the global automotive market and is now exploring the feasibility of electric and hydrogen propulsion technologies for aerospace integration.” 

Given that some eVTOL makers have already confirmed plans to produce thousands of aircraft, the car industry’s proven ability to manufacture at scale is an asset, too. Integrating best practices to facilitate efficient production is an attractive proposition for an ambitious eVTOL start-up.

And, of course, having invested massively in creating new cars for a new era, it’s fair to say car manufacturers believe air mobility offers a lucrative opportunity to recoup some of their phenomenal outlay.

The value of the eVTOL market

Just how lucrative is that opportunity? At this early stage, it’s impossible to say with any confidence, and this uncertainty was reflected in a 2021 research paper from Morgan Stanley that heavily revised figures originally published in 2018.

Four years ago, Morgan Stanley raised eyebrows with a bold prediction that the urban air mobility total addressable market (TAM) could be worth $1.5 trillion by 2040. But in May last year – in a report titled 'eVTOL/Urban Air Mobility TAM Update: A Slow Take-Off, But Sky’s The Limit', which perfectly sums up the current state of affairs – that was revised down to $1 trillion by 2040.

More immediately, the estimated US TAM for 2030 was also significantly reduced, from $45 billion to just $12 billion.

Regulation of eVTOLs

The Morgan Stanley report made clear one of the reasons behind the revision: the regulation process. It stated: “Our mapping of the regulatory side suggests investors should assume ‘horizontal’… expectations of commercial introduction at least in the early years while leaving the door open for the ‘vertical’ inflection at some point in the future, which we currently assume is closer to 2040 or beyond rather than 2030.”

Aviation authorities in the UK, mainland Europe and the US have all recently been involved in establishing standards for the certification of eVTOL craft. America’s Federal Aviation Administration hopes to be able to ready to issue full certification by 2024, although sceptics point out this would require working at a speed that it has not previously demonstrated it is capable of.

There’s also the question of how eVTOL craft integrate with existing air traffic and infrastructure. Work is progressing at pace in this area, with, for example, a Concept of Operations published in Britain earlier this year by the UK Air Mobility Consortium in association with the Civil Aviation Authority.

With all this still to be determined, it would be ambitious to predict a definitive date when a commercial eVTOL service may be realised.

So which car makers are involved?

The extent of the interest in the eVTOL world is perfectly illustrated by the spread of car companies involved.

Volkswagen became the most recent to join the fray when its Chinese arm revealed the V.MO prototype – or Flying Tiger as it has been nicknamed – in August. It previews a production eVTOL craft for China that would carry four passengers. A series of test flights is planned for later this year.

Hyundai has launched a dedicated air division, Supernal, which has already revealed concept air taxis and provided funding for Urban Air-Port’s Air-One vertiport, launched in Coventry earlier this year. Supernal also recently announced a tie-up with Rolls-Royce – the aviation company – to work on electric propulsion and fuel cell tech for air mobility.

A barrage of over-excited headlines emerged in March when Suzuki confirmed a deal with Japan’s SkyDrive to develop what it termed “a compact, two-seat, electric-powered flying car”. Toyota has also made a foray into the industry, having announced a $394 million investment in California aerospace company Joby Aviation in January 2020. “While we continue our work in the automobile business, this agreement sets our sights to the sky,” said president Akio Toyoda at the time.

Others looking upwards are Honda, which intends to develop its own eVTOL as part of an ambitious plan to create an electric transportation eco-system, and Stellantis, which has invested heavily in California’s Archer Aviation and provided access to its supply chain and engineering and design experience.

Graham Hope